KONA LOW--Atmospheric River West Coast--ALOHA HAWAII

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     The following results are search inquiries at the Artificial Intelligence (AI) site Perplexity. Included are searches into possible links of the string of cold-weather storms continually impacting the West Coast and their possible relationships to climate change and global warming. 

      Even subtle changes in atmospheric conditions appear to bring on sudden prolonged inundations which do not always guarantee a much-sought winter snowpack in the Sierra Nevada; and if one or two heavy snowstorms roll in around the Solstice, they end up a rain washout by January, as is the case in December 2024.

pacific ocean winter subtropical storms

Subtropical storms in the Pacific Ocean during winter are relatively uncommon but can occur under specific conditions. These storms exhibit characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones, forming in a unique environment.

Formation and Characteristics

Subtropical cyclones typically form when a deep cold-core extratropical cyclone moves into subtropical regions2. They require:

• Sea surface temperatures around 23°C (73°F), which is lower than the 26.5°C threshold for tropical cyclones2

• Significant temperature contrast between the ocean surface and mid-troposphere

• Blocking high-pressure systems that trap the cyclone in subtropical latitudes

These storms often develop:

• Outside the traditional hurricane season

• At higher latitudes than tropical cyclones

• In areas with stronger vertical wind shear

Pacific Ocean Subtropical Storms

Kona Storms: In the central Pacific, particularly near Hawaii, winter subtropical cyclones are known as Kona storms2. These deep cyclones:

• Form during the cool winter season

• Can bring significant changes in wind direction and weather patterns to the Hawaiian Islands

Eastern Pacific: Subtropical cyclone formation is extremely rare in the far southeastern Pacific due to:

• Cold sea-surface temperatures from the Humboldt Current

• Unfavorable wind shear conditions2

However, exceptions do occur. In April 2015, a rare subtropical cyclone dubbed "Katie" formed in this region, breaking previous records for easternmost formation3. Another system, "Lexi," formed even closer to the Chilean coast in May 20183.

Factors Influencing Formation

The occurrence of Pacific Ocean winter subtropical storms can be influenced by:

• El Niño events, which can increase sea surface temperatures and create more favorable conditions3

• The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which can affect cold air distribution and storm system development1

While subtropical storms are more common in the North Atlantic, they do occur in the Pacific Ocean, presenting unique challenges for weather forecasting and maritime operations in affected regions.

pacific ocean winter subtropical storms

kona low dip in the jet stream

A Kona low is a unique weather phenomenon that occurs in Hawaii, characterized by a significant dip in the jet stream. This weather pattern forms when a portion of the jet stream breaks off from the main flow, creating a separate area of closed-off, circular jet stream pattern12.

Formation and Characteristics

The formation of a Kona low begins with a southward plunge of cold air over the central Pacific Ocean2. This process involves:

1. A deep kink developing in the jet stream

2. The kink sinking southward

3. The low-pressure system pinching off from the main jet stream3

As a result, a subtropical cyclone forms northwest of Hawaii, outside the band of warm waters that typically fuel tropical storms3.

Effects on Weather

The presence of a Kona low can lead to several significant weather changes in Hawaii:

• Wind Direction: The term "Kona" refers to the leeward or dry side of an island, typically the west side. During a Kona low, the usual northeasterly trade winds shift to southwesterly winds3.

• Temperature: Cold air becomes trapped within the circular jet stream pattern, causing temperatures to plummet at the highest volcanic summits1.

• Precipitation: The low-pressure system draws moisture from the warm waters surrounding Hawaii, potentially leading to heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and even snow on the tallest peaks3.

• Coastal Impact: Large waves and coastal flooding, particularly along south-facing beaches, are common during Kona low events1.

Timing and Duration

Kona lows are most prevalent during the late fall, winter, and spring months2. Unlike typical weather systems, a Kona low can linger for several days due to its cut-off nature from the main jet stream5. This prolonged presence can result in extended periods of adverse weather conditions for the Hawaiian Islands.

kona low dip in the jet stream

what causes a dip in the jet stream on pacific ocean

A dip in the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean can be caused by several interrelated factors:

Temperature Contrasts

The primary driver of jet stream formation and behavior is the temperature difference between warm and cold air masses12. A significant dip, or southward excursion, of the jet stream over the Pacific can occur when there's a pronounced contrast between:

• Warm tropical air to the south

• Cold polar air to the north

This temperature gradient creates a pressure difference that influences the jet stream's path2.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

Rossby Waves

Large meanders in the jet stream, known as Rossby waves, can cause significant dips15. These planetary-scale waves form due to:

• The Earth's rotation (Coriolis effect)

• Variations in atmospheric pressure

• Changes in topography

When a Rossby wave develops a deep trough over the Pacific, it manifests as a southward dip in the jet stream.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

ENSO can significantly impact the jet stream's behavior over the Pacific:

• During El Niño events, the jet stream tends to shift southward and extend further east across the North Pacific7.

• La Niña conditions typically cause the jet stream to retract westward and move poleward7.

Climate Change Influence

Recent studies suggest that climate change may be altering jet stream dynamics:

• Arctic amplification (faster warming in the Arctic) can reduce the temperature gradient between polar and mid-latitude regions35.

• This weakened gradient may lead to a more meandering, wavy jet stream pattern, potentially causing more frequent and persistent dips35.

Atmospheric Blocking

High-pressure systems can sometimes "block" the typical west-to-east flow of the jet stream, forcing it to dip southward around the blocking pattern1. These blocks can be particularly influential over the Pacific Ocean.

In summary, while temperature contrasts are the fundamental cause, a combination of atmospheric circulation patterns, climate variability (like ENSO), and potentially climate change-induced alterations all contribute to creating significant dips in the Pacific jet stream.

what causes a dip in the jet stream on pacific ocean

direction of prevailing winds on pacific ocean

The prevailing winds over the Pacific Ocean are primarily influenced by the trade winds, which play a significant role in the region's climate and ocean currents.

Trade Winds

• Northern Hemisphere: The trade winds blow from the northeast. These winds originate from subtropical high-pressure areas and move towards the equator, driving surface currents westward across the Pacific Ocean12.

• Southern Hemisphere: In contrast, the trade winds in this region blow from the southeast, also contributing to westward currents. This pattern results in a convergence at the equator, creating an area known as the doldrums, characterized by light and variable breezes12.

Wind Patterns

• The general direction of winds across the Pacific is predominantly from east to west, with variations based on latitude. This east-west flow is crucial for navigation and weather patterns in the region26.

• In the mid-latitudes (30° to 60°), westerly winds dominate, which are influenced by larger atmospheric circulation patterns. These westerlies drive significant ocean currents such as the North Pacific Current56.

Impact on Ocean Currents

The prevailing winds directly influence ocean currents:

• The North Pacific Gyre is formed by these easterly trade winds and westerlies, creating a circular flow that affects marine navigation and climate patterns across the Pacific35.

• The California Current, a cold eastern boundary current, flows southward along the western coast of North America, influenced by both trade winds and westerlies35.

In summary, prevailing winds over the Pacific Ocean are characterized by northeast trade winds in the northern hemisphere and southeast trade winds in the southern hemisphere, with both sets of winds contributing to a predominant east-west flow that shapes ocean currents and weather patterns across this vast body of water.

direction of prevailing winds on pacific ocean

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KONA LOW--Hawaii Weather Stream Phenomena--PACIFIC OCEAN

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WHITELIGHTNING//AI.RESEARCH//IMMEDREL//12/22/24/0730PST

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The following information is from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) site Perplexity, with regard to tropical cyclone formation in and around the Hawaiian Islands, known as the Kona Low, that may have a direct effect on West Coast weather patterns, in conjunction with the unpredictable anomalies created by climate change and global warming.

the kona stream weather phenomena

     The Kona Low, also known as a Kona storm, is a unique weather phenomenon that affects Hawaii and the surrounding Pacific region during the cooler months, typically from October to April12. This subtropical cyclone is characterized by its distinct formation process and the significant weather impacts it brings to the Hawaiian Islands.

Formation and Characteristics

Kona Lows develop when:

1. A deep kink forms in the jet stream

2. This kink sinks southward and pinches off

3. A low-pressure circulation is left behind, cut off from the main jet stream1

     These storms originate northwest of Hawaii, outside the warm tropical waters that fuel tropical cyclones1. Unlike hurricanes, Kona Lows circle a cold center rather than a warm one1.

Weather Impacts

Kona Lows can bring extreme weather conditions to Hawaii, including:

• Heavy rainfall, with some areas receiving up to 280 mm (11 inches) of rain1

• High winds, with gusts reaching up to 110 km/h (70 mph)1

• Blizzard conditions on the summits of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea1

• Powerful waves and severe thunderstorms2

• Flooding, landslides, and road closures12

Wind Direction Change

     The term "Kona" in Kona Low refers to the change in wind direction that occurs during these events:

• Normally, Hawaii experiences trade winds from the northeast

• During a Kona Low, the counterclockwise flow around the low-pressure system west of Hawaii results in southwesterly winds1

• This shift brings winds from the leeward or "kona" side of the islands1

Duration and Frequency

Kona Lows can persist for several days due to their cut-off nature from the main steering currents12. On average, about a dozen Kona storms occur per winter, with 2-3 directly impacting the Hawaiian Islands3.

Rainfall Contribution

Kona Lows can significantly contribute to Hawaii's rainfall totals:

• On average, they account for 11% of seasonal rainfall across the state

• In some locations, they can contribute up to 37% of the seasonal rainfall total

• Leeward areas of the islands tend to receive a greater proportion of their total rainfall from Kona Lows compared to windward areas5

     The Kona Low is a complex weather system that plays a crucial role in Hawaii's climate, bringing both beneficial rainfall and potentially hazardous conditions to the islands during the cooler months.

the kona stream weather phenomena

do kona lows ever reach the us mainland

     Kona lows, also known as Kona storms, are a type of weather phenomenon that primarily affects the Hawaiian Islands. They typically form during the winter months and are characterized by a shift in wind patterns that brings moist air from the south or southwest, contrasting with the usual northeast trade winds. These systems can lead to heavy rainfall, high winds, and even blizzard conditions at higher elevations in Hawaii123.

Do Kona Lows Reach the U.S. Mainland?

     Kona lows are generally localized weather systems that originate in the central Pacific Ocean and predominantly impact Hawaii. While they can occasionally influence weather patterns further afield, such as in the eastern Pacific or even the U.S. West Coast, it is rare for them to directly reach the U.S. mainland. The primary reason for this is their formation process, which involves a dip in the jet stream that typically keeps these systems confined to the Hawaiian region24.

     However, there are instances where remnants of a Kona low can interact with other weather systems and affect mainland weather, but this is not common. The cold core nature of these systems means they do not have the same warm water dynamics that tropical storms or hurricanes rely on for strength and longevity34. Thus, while they may influence broader weather patterns temporarily, significant impacts on the U.S. mainland from Kona lows are quite unusual.

have there been any significant Kona lows that reached the US mainland

While Kona lows primarily affect Hawaii, there is evidence that they can indirectly influence weather patterns on the U.S. mainland, though significant direct impacts are rare.

February 2023 

     A Kona low contributed to a weather event that reached the U.S. West Coast. Satellite imagery showed an elongated region of cold cloud tops extending from southwest of Hawaii to the U.S. West Coast, with a narrow band of very cold cloud top temperatures (<-60°C) stretching from Southern California to Colorado5. This suggests that the Kona low's moisture and energy interacted with other atmospheric systems, affecting weather patterns far from its origin.

     However, it's important to note that this influence is typically indirect. Kona lows are subtropical cyclones that form northwest of Hawaii, outside the band of warm tropical waters that fuel tropical cyclones1. Their cold-core nature and formation process generally limit their ability to maintain strength over long distances.

     While Kona lows can cause severe weather in Hawaii, including heavy rainfall, high winds, and even blizzard conditions at higher elevations12, there are no reported instances of a Kona low directly reaching the U.S. mainland with the same intensity it had near Hawaii. The effects on the mainland are usually the result of the Kona low's remnants interacting with other weather systems rather than the Kona low itself making landfall.

Can Kona lows influence weather patterns in California

     Yes, Kona lows can influence weather patterns in California, although their effects are typically indirect and part of larger weather systems.

Indirect Influence on California Weather

     Kona lows, which are subtropical cyclones that form northwest of Hawaii, can contribute to atmospheric river (AR) events that reach the U.S. West Coast, including California1. These systems can interact with other weather patterns to create significant precipitation events:

1. In February 2019, a Kona low contributed to a high-impact atmospheric river event that caused widespread flooding in California1.

2. Satellite imagery showed an elongated region of cold cloud tops extending from southwest of Hawaii to the U.S. West Coast, indicating the Kona low's influence on broader weather patterns1.

Mechanism of Influence

The influence of Kona lows on California weather occurs through several mechanisms:

1. Moisture Transport: Kona lows can help transport moisture across the Pacific, contributing to the formation and intensification of atmospheric rivers1.

2. Interaction with Other Systems: As Kona lows move northeastward, they can merge with other weather systems, enhancing the overall moisture content and energy of storms approaching the West Coast1.

3. Modulation of Jet Stream: The presence of a Kona low can affect the position and strength of the jet stream, which in turn influences storm tracks and precipitation patterns over California1.

While Kona lows do not typically make direct landfall on the U.S. mainland with their original intensity, their remnants and the weather systems they influence can significantly impact California's weather, particularly during the winter months when these systems are more common4.

do kona lows ever reach the us mainland

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WHITELIGHTNING//AI.RESEARCH//IMMEDREL//12/22/24/0730PST

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